
- September 14, 2021
Here are some of the reasons why the stock market could 'melt-up' and surprise everyone.
Chris Harvey, the head of equities strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, is among the growing number of Wall Street bears right now.
Despite the sceptics predicting market declines by year's end, the nearly 30-year market veteran remains bullish on stocks. Harvey expects the S&P 500 to conclude the year at 4,825, up 8% from present levels.
There are still numerous significant drivers of increased stock prices in play for Harvey.
Harvey explained, "Our 4,825 call is what we call an equity market melt-up."
Harvey explained, "One of the things we want to emphasise to our clients and investors is that we have a long track record. We looked at occasions in 1990 when the stock market was up double digits in the first eight months of the year. We had nine of these occurrences, and the stock market rose in every single one of them. It may have been as low as one or as high as 18. Those odds appeal to us. The foundations, we believe, are also on our side. We believe EPS should be greater. We believe firms have been extremely cautious, and that, in the end, price will follow earnings."
To be fair, Harvey's bullish outlook on stocks is the polar opposite of most of his Wall Street contemporaries, as the Morning Brief newsletter points out.
Binky Chadha, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, recently expressed concern about the possibility of a market downturn in the near future. Savita Subramanian of Bank of America has issued a market warning of her own. Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley predicted a 10% decline on Yahoo Finance Live.
Back in June, Stifel strategist Barry Bannister predicted that the S&P 500 would touch 3,800 by the end of the year.
So the negative strategists are out in force, and it appears that money managers are finally paying attention.
Global growth prospects continued to "fall sharply" in September, according to the latest survey of fund managers out of Bank of America. Economic growth estimates have dropped to their lowest level since April 2020, according to the study.
Global profit estimates have also declined "significantly" this month, according to BofA. Profit forecasts have been at their lowest since May 2020. Profit forecasts dropped by 29 percentage points in September compared to August.
Furthermore, a net 22% of respondents polled by BofA expect company profit margins to decline in the coming months. This is an increase from 15% in August.
Nonetheless, Wall Fargo's Harvey believes the environment is favourable for cyclical stocks.
"We want greater cyclical exposure into this meltdown," Harvey said, noting that his firm recently boosted its view for the media/entertainment industry while downgrading the software sector.